The Kingdom at the Centre of Arab Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia occupies a unique position in the Arab world and in global geopolitics. As custodian of Islam's holiest sites, the world's largest oil exporter, and the most populous Gulf state, the Kingdom's foreign policy choices carry outsized consequences for the entire region. In recent years, Saudi diplomacy has been marked by bold moves, course corrections, and a new willingness to engage with former adversaries.
The GCC and Gulf Unity
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman — is the primary institutional framework for Gulf regional cooperation. After a damaging three-year rift in which Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed ties with Qatar over allegations of support for terrorism and ties with Iran, the blockade was formally ended at the Al-Ula Summit in January 2021.
The reconciliation signaled a pragmatic shift: Gulf states recognized that internal divisions were strategically costly, particularly as US security commitments to the region came under question and Iran's regional influence continued to expand.
The Saudi-Iran Rapprochement
One of the most significant diplomatic developments in recent Middle East history was the March 2023 agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations — brokered by China. The two regional rivals had severed ties in 2016 following the storming of Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran after the execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.
The deal was remarkable for several reasons:
- It was mediated by China, not the United States — a signal of shifting regional diplomatic dynamics.
- It opened the possibility of dialogue on proxy conflicts, including the war in Yemen.
- It suggested Saudi Arabia was pursuing strategic autonomy, engaging multiple great powers rather than relying solely on its US alliance.
The Yemen Conflict
Saudi Arabia has been the leader of a military coalition supporting Yemen's internationally recognized government against the Houthi movement since 2015. The conflict — one of the world's worst humanitarian crises — has been costly for Saudi Arabia in financial, military, and reputational terms.
In the wake of the Iran deal, Saudi Arabia engaged in direct talks with the Houthis, and a prolonged de-facto ceasefire has reduced hostilities significantly compared to earlier years of the conflict. A final political settlement remains elusive, but the shift toward negotiation represents a meaningful change in approach.
Relations with Israel and the Abraham Accords
Saudi Arabia has not joined the Abraham Accords — the normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states brokered in 2020. However, behind-the-scenes contacts between Riyadh and Jerusalem have been widely reported, and US-brokered normalization talks were underway before being complicated by the outbreak of conflict in Gaza in October 2023.
Saudi officials have consistently stated that any normalization would require meaningful progress toward Palestinian statehood — a position that remains unchanged and is central to understanding Saudi regional policy.
Strategic Outlook
Saudi Arabia's regional strategy in the current period can be characterized as:
- De-escalation: Reducing costly conflicts and focusing resources on domestic development.
- Hedging: Maintaining the US security relationship while deepening ties with China, Russia, and others.
- Leadership: Asserting a central role in Arab and Islamic world affairs.
Whether this strategy succeeds will depend heavily on developments beyond Riyadh's control — but the direction is clear.